Athletic Bilbao (@1.66) vs Alaves (@6.5)
23-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Athletic Bilbao will win

Athletic Bilbao – Alaves Match Prediction | 23-09-2019 12:30

This game really does not have the feel of one that will produce many goals. Its hard to see anything other than a tight, tense derby match developing but Athletic have been consistently getting the results at home since the coaching change last autumn and they may just edge it. Alaves 4 games so far have produced just 4 goals in total while Athletics games have only produced one more.

The Lions, on the other hand, are having a season to forget, with the team sitting in the relegation zone ahead of Matchday 16. Los Babazorros are a real force to be reckoned with at home and you should bear in mind that they are undefeated at their Estadio de Mendizorroza this term. Estadio de Mendizorroza will host Mondays football game between Deportivo Alaves and Athletic Club, the two Basque clubs. As expected, Alaves were beaten by Atletico Madrid at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano in their last league match, with the team dropping to fifth place in the standings. Athletic Club experienced all sorts of problems at the back in a 3-0 loss to Levante in Valencia and, taking everything into account, we believe that there is a big value in betting on the hosts, who defeated the likes of Real Madrid and Villarreal at home earlier this term.

Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves H2H

And while he never got a chance to shine at Etihad Stadium, Guidetti proved a great deal of potential during loan spells with Feyenoord and Celtic, and eventually earned a permanent contract with La Liga high flyers Celta Vigo.The talented striker has yet to nail down a regular starting berth at Balaidos, but he has been using the time spent on the pitch wisely, and continued his goalscoring form in Spains top flight.

Both of these teams started this season in the same way. Ath Bilbao looks stronger than Alaves up to this day. I looked at their recent performances and their styles of play, as well as other factors like tradition while I was crafting my selection. If we take everything I said, it points to the home win with under 2.5 goals scored.

Theyll be clear underdogs here though as the two Garitanos (no relation) go head to head in the dugout. Athletic have another Basque derby at San Mames here having beaten rivals Real Sociedad in their most recent home match. Their record against Alaves hasnt been great though in recent times with the Vitoria outfit having only suffered one defeat against the neighbours since returning to the top flight in 2016.

Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves Stats

Alaves are having an exceptional season but they have just started to see luck desert them in recent weeks and theyve fallen out of the top four for almost the first time this season. Abelardos men head into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions. They were beaten 3-0 at Atletico Madrid last weekend but the scoreline flattered Diego Simeones men slightly and Alaves should still take belief into this one as they remain in the top six heading into match-day 16.

They may even think they can climb a place higher than 7th which would be a huge bonus as it would most likely see them straight into the group stages of the Europa League rather than the 2nd Qualifying Round. They still have one or two injuries to contend with here but Gaizka Garitano is boosted by the return of Raul Garcia from suspension which adds to his midfield options. Victory for the hosts would all but guarantee European football, a remarkable turnaround given where they were in the Autumn.

Alaves have been the highest ranked of the Basque clubs for virtually the entire season but theyve been caught by Athletic over the past couple of weeks and its now Alaves who are playing catch-up here. The battle for 7th was about the only thing still up for discussion this time last year. Fortunately there is plenty more to keep an eye on at both ends this term but this Saturdays match between Athletic Club and Alaves has the feel of a 7th place showdown.

How we calculate our stats

Alaves will have to stop him from giving the confidence boost if they want something from this game. By looking at their results this year, it seems more likely. We dont see many goals in their encounters, so a tight match is probably expected. An interesting thing is that Bilbaos Raul Garcias last three league goals were all scored before the 20th minute. Both Athletic Bilbao and Alaves started their La Liga campaign by recording solid results. They have only 4 wins from the last 13 games played away from home. These two teams have a lot of history behind them, with many Head-to-Head matches. On the other side, Alaves is not a great away team. Ath Bilbao is in a great form at home, they are without a loss for 14 consecutive games. By looking at all of these facts, they point to the probable Ath Bilbao win.

That may not exactly be the recipe for a classic here but Basque derbies are always fascinating in their own way and itll be interesting to see if Athletic have the creativity to open Alaves up if they do come here with a park the bus attitude. The similarities between these two coaches go beyond their shared surnames with both placing great emphasis on hard work and sold defensive foundations.

They are one of just two sides yet to lose at home this season in the Spanish top flight and given that and Athletics general struggles, all the value here looks to lie with then hosts. Alaves meanwhile have been very solid at home this term, conceding just 0.71 goals per game on average in front of their own fans.